Cyclone Arnab Projected to Hit Andhra Pradesh Coast as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

A deep depression over the eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal is forecast to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm named Cyclone Arnab. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is tracking to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on October 28, 2026, with maximum sustained wind speeds reaching 115 to 125 kmph and gusts up to 140 kmph. The depression was located approximately 420 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands and 870 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. In response, coastal administrations in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have initiated round-the-clock emergency monitoring, mobilized 10 National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and 11 State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) units, and issued advisories suspending marine fishing activities along the eastern seaboard.

Significance for the UPSC Examination

Tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean basin, particularly over the Bay of Bengal, are a recurring theme under physical geography and disaster management. Understanding cyclogenesis helps aspirants analyse key atmospheric and oceanic conditions:

• Thermodynamic and Dynamic Triggers: Tropical cyclones require warm ocean waters with sea surface temperatures generally above 26.5°C, high atmospheric moisture, low vertical wind shear, and sufficient Coriolis force to induce cyclonic vorticity.
• Post-Monsoon Vulnerability: The months of October and November mark the transition period characterized by the retreat of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon, creating favorable conditions for intense cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal.
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): Pre-emptive evacuations, deployment of specialized disaster response teams, and multi-tier early warning dissemination align with the targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and India's objective of achieving zero avoidable casualties.

Impact and Vulnerability

Concurrently, active northeast monsoon conditions have triggered heavy rainfall across peninsular India. In Tamil Nadu, saturated soil profiles led to as many as 62 landslips within 24 hours in the Nilgiris district, underscoring the compounding geo-hydrological hazards faced by ecologically fragile mountain tracts during severe weather phenomena.